Kinnex Figure 2 coverage-model benchmark (2026-07-20)
Data and design
The author-provided kinnex_wtc11_oarfish.tar.gz archive contains 1-million-read
transcriptome-aligned BAMs for the three Day 0 (SIRV E1) and three Day 5 (SIRV
E2) replicates, the SIRV Set 4 reference, and archived Oarfish counts. We ran
the current dev release build with eight threads and no alignment filters.
The compared modes were:
none: no positional coverage likelihood;logistic: the current repaired logistic implementation;auto: the current PacBio adaptive-logistic kernel;abundance-blend:autofollowed by transcript-abundance-dependent blending with a coverage-free warm-up estimate.
Panel D is pooled across 69 SIRVs and three matched replicate pairs (207
observations): observed Day0-Day5 logCPM difference versus expected
log2(E1/E2). Panel E pools the three Day 0 replicates: logCPM versus
log(molecular_weight * E1_molarity). CPM values use edgeR's default prior
count convention. Pearson is the paper's displayed statistic; Spearman and
Panel-D RMSE are additional diagnostics.
Results
| Model | D Pearson | D Spearman | D RMSE | E Pearson | E Spearman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archived paper Oarfish | 0.8055 | 0.8286 | 2.2472 | 0.7044 | 0.7354 |
| None | 0.8273 | 0.8578 | 2.0962 | 0.6396 | 0.6706 |
| Current logistic | 0.7515 | 0.8192 | 2.6568 | 0.7029 | 0.7320 |
| Current auto | 0.7530 | 0.8202 | 2.6383 | 0.7015 | 0.7303 |
| Abundance blend | 0.7886 | 0.8326 | 2.3797 | 0.6776 | 0.7027 |
The effects are concentrated in long SIRVs (at least 1250 nt). Short-SIRV Panel-D Pearson is approximately 0.887 for every mode. For long SIRVs, Panel-D Pearson is 0.778 with no model, 0.651 with auto, and 0.711 with abundance blending. Conversely, long-SIRV Panel-E Pearson is 0.281 with no model, 0.669 with auto, and 0.449 with abundance blending.
Thus this benchmark exposes a real objective trade-off. Coverage correction
recovers the length/mass-associated absolute-abundance relationship in Panel E,
but overcorrects relative E1/E2 changes in Panel D. The adaptive reliability
gate in current PacBio auto barely changes the current logistic result. The
abundance blend moves toward no coverage and substantially recovers Panel D,
but gives up too much Panel-E accuracy to dominate either endpoint.
The archived counts reproduce the paper's Panel-D value (0.8055, displayed as
0.81) and approximately reproduce Panel E (0.7044 versus displayed 0.71). A
fresh run of current logistic does not exactly reproduce those archived
counts. This is expected because the current implementation is repaired and
other Oarfish internals have evolved; the archived arm is therefore retained
as a historical reference rather than treated as an executable mode.
Runtime and memory
Means across six samples, using Oarfish's phase timers:
| Model | Alignment + coverage + EM (s) | Coverage phase (s) | Mean peak RSS (MiB) | Median EM evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 27.26 | ~0 | 196.2 | 588.5 |
| Current logistic | 25.17 | 0.051 | 226.7 | 464.5 |
| Current auto | 25.96 | 0.237 | 241.4 | 464.5 |
| Abundance blend | 11.76 | 3.635 | 239.5 | 164.0 |
The blend is faster here despite its warm-up because that warm-up uses DAAREM and supplies a strong initialization to the final EM. Three Day-5 runs reached the 1000-evaluation limit in several non-blend modes, so convergence behavior is a material part of the timing result.
Reproduction
Quantifications, logs, metadata, resource measurements, and scored tables are
under oarfish-evaluation-data/kinnex-wtc11/coverage-model-comparison-20260720.
The reusable drivers are scripts/run_kinnex_fig2_benchmark.py and
scripts/evaluate_kinnex_fig2.py.
Conclusion
Current auto does not help materially over current logistic on this data and
is not the best overall choice: no coverage wins relative-change recovery,
while logistic wins the paper's absolute-abundance metric. Abundance blending
is a useful compromise but is not yet the desired best-of-both-worlds rule.
This dataset should become a held-out calibration target for learning a
sample/transcript-specific coverage strength, with special attention to long
transcripts and paired-condition stability.